Why Donald Trump Secured a Major Step in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the near four-year conflict in the region have been put on hold.

Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential summit have been overstated, apparently.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russian President Putin in the Hungarian capital - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a fruitless discussion," Donald Trump informed the press at the executive mansion on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
  • Letdown in Kyiv as Zelensky departs Washington without results

The frequently changing meeting is another twist in Trump's attempts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a truce and prisoner exchange deal in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"We have to get Russia resolved," he said.

However, the conditions that converged to make a Middle East success possible for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for almost four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the key to achieving a agreement was Israel's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in Qatar. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his first term, including his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his support for Israel's military campaign against the Islamic Republic.

The American leader, in fact, is better regarded among the Israeli public than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, the president has much less leverage. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to impose additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that doing so could harm the world's financial stability and intensify the war.

At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending arms shipments to the country - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a defeat of Ukraine could disrupt the whole area.

Trump loves to tout his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Putin's summit in the summer yielded little tangible outcome.

Putin may actually be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader consented to a summit in the US state just as it seemed probable that Trump would sign off on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia phoned Trump who then touted the potential meeting in Budapest.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by Putin.

"You know, I have been manipulated throughout my career by the best of them, and I came out really well," he remarked.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the president of Ukraine later made note of the sequence of events.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a little further away for us – for our nation – the Russian side almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to planning a meeting in Hungary with Putin and privately pressuring the Ukrainian president to cede all of Donbas – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately decided on calling for a truce along present frontlines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail previously, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has since discarded that pledge, admitting that ending the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when neither side wants, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Shawn Reed
Shawn Reed

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