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In October 2022, when Rishi Sunak assumed office as British prime minister, he was the fifth UK leader to take up the position in six years.

Unleashed on the UK by Britain's EU exit, this represented exceptional governmental instability. So how might we describe what is occurring in the French Republic, now on its sixth premier in two years – with three in the past 10 months?

The current premier, the recently reappointed Sébastien Lecornu, may have gained a brief respite on that day, sacrificing Emmanuel Macron’s key pension reform in exchange for support from Socialist lawmakers as the cost of his government’s survival.

But it is, in the best case, a temporary fix. The EU’s second-largest economy is trapped in a ongoing governmental crisis, the scale of which it has not experienced for many years – perhaps not since the start of its Fifth French Republic in 1958 – and from which there appears no simple way out.

Minority Rule

Essential context: ever since Macron initiated an ill-advised snap general election in 2024, the nation has had a divided assembly separated into three warring blocs – left, the far right and his own centrist coalition – none with anything close to a majority.

At the same time, the nation faces dual debt and deficit crises: its national debt level and budget shortfall are now almost twice the EU limit, and strict legal timelines to pass a 2026 budget that at least begins to rein in spending are approaching.

In this challenging environment, both Lecornu’s immediate predecessors – Michel Barnier, who served from September to December 2024, and François Bayrou, who took office from December 2024 to September 2025 – were ousted by the assembly.

In mid-September, the president appointed his trusted associate Lecornu as his latest PM. But when, a little over two weeks ago, Lecornu presented his government team – which turned out to be largely unchanged from before – he encountered anger from both supporters and rivals.

To such an extent that the following day, he stepped down. After just 27 days in office, Lecornu became the shortest-lived premier in modern French history. In a dignified speech, he blamed political intransigence, saying “partisan attitudes” and “certain egos” would make his job all but impossible.

A further unexpected development: shortly after Lecornu’s resignation, Macron asked him to stay on for two more days in a final attempt to salvage cross-party backing – a task, to put it mildly, not without complications.

Next, two ex-prime ministers openly criticized the embattled president. Meanwhile, the far-right National Rally (RN) and radical left France Unbowed (LFI) declined to engage with Lecornu, promising to vote down all future administrations unless there were snap elections.

Lecornu stuck at his job, engaging with all willing listeners. At the end of his 48 hours, he went on TV to say he believed “a path still existed” to prevent a vote. The president’s office announced the president would appoint a new prime minister 48 hours later.

Macron honored his word – and on Friday reappointed Sébastien Lecornu. So recently – with Macron commenting from the wings that the country’s rival political parties were “fuelling division” and “entirely to blame for the turmoil” – was Lecornu’s moment of truth. Would he endure – and can he pass that vital budget?

In a high-stakes speech, the 39-year-old PM spelled out his budget priorities, giving the centre-left Socialist party (PS), who detest Macron’s unpopular pension overhaul, what they were expecting: Macron’s key policy would be suspended until 2027.

With the conservative Les Républicains (LR) already on board, the Socialists said they would not back no-confidence motions tabled against Lecornu by the far right and radical left – meaning the government should survive those ballots, scheduled for Thursday.

It is, however, far from guaranteed to be able to approve its €30bn austerity budget: the PS clearly stated that it would be seeking more concessions. “This move,” said its head, Olivier Faure, “is just the start.”

A Cultural Shift

The issue is, the greater concessions he makes to the left, the more opposition he'll face from the right. And, similar to the Socialists, the conservatives are themselves split on dealing with the administration – certain members remain eager to bring it down.

A glance at the parliamentary arithmetic shows how difficult his mission – and future viability – will be. A total of 264 deputies from the far-right RN, LFI, Greens, Communists and UDR seek his removal.

To succeed, they need a majority of 288 votes in parliament – so if they can persuade just 24 of the PS’s 69 deputies or the LR’s 47 (or both) to vote with them, Macron’s fifth precarious prime minister in 24 months is, like his predecessors, finished.

Few would bet against that happening sooner rather than later. Even if, by an unlikely turn, the dysfunctional assembly summons up the collective responsibility to approve a budget this year, the prospects for the government beyond that look grim.

So is there a way out? Early elections would be doubtful to resolve the issue: surveys indicate nearly all parties except the RN would see reduced representation, but there would remain no decisive majority. A fresh premier would face the same intractable arithmetic.

Another possibility might be for Macron himself to resign. After a presidential vote, his successor would dissolve parliament and aim for a legislative majority in the ensuing legislative vote. But that, too, is uncertain.

Surveys show the future president will be Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella. There is at least an strong possibility that France’s voters, having chosen a far-right leader, might reconsider giving them parliamentary power.

Ultimately, France may not escape its predicament until its leaders accept the new political reality, which is that decisive majorities are a thing of the past, winner-takes-all no longer applies, and negotiation doesn't mean defeat.

Many think that transformation will not be possible under the country’s current constitution. “This is no conventional parliamentary crisis, but a crise de régime” that will prove anything but temporary.

“The system wasn't built to encourage – and actively discourages – the emergence of governing coalitions common in the rest of Europe. The Fifth Republic may well have entered its terminal phase.”