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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in Holland, with current polling data suggesting that the anti-immigration leader Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, though experts suggest PVV stands little chance of being part of the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to win between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-seat parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has dipped since the previous election, when it won 37 seats. Every significant political group have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid a dispute concerning his controversial anti-refugee proposals.

Key Contenders and Projections

Following a campaign focused on issues such as immigration, healthcare costs, and the country's severe housing crisis, the centre-left GL/PvdA coalition, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the centrist Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to see their representation reduced, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just less than one percent of the vote earns a party one MP. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of fragmentation ensures that no single party is ever likely to secure a majority, and the Netherlands has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for more than a century.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. However, opponents and experts say that first place does not assure government participation and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

Although the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take several months, analysts suggest that after the most radical administration in its recent history, the next Dutch cabinet is expected to be a broad-based alliance headed by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, began operations at 7:30 AM (6.30am GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate post-voting survey is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could command a majority in the legislature. Potential partners will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.